international analysis and commentary

Can the US avoid an economic recession?

Despite the persistent post-Covid strength of the US jobs market, the preponderance of evidence in recent months strongly suggests it will be hard to avoid a recession in 2023. Rapidly increasing Federal debt levels preclude significant…

The uncertain state of the Biden economy

President Biden’s State of the Union address on February 7 touted the economic achievements of his administration. He took credit for a new approach to supporting the transition to a renewables-based economy and a trillion dollar program of…